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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that a framework for a ceasefire agreement developed with American diplomats are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, U.S. representatives will present the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that approximately “90%” of the contentious issues between Moscow and Kyiv had been settled. Despite this optimistic assessment, an actual conclusion to the conflict is not guaranteed, especially given the Russian lack of participation from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, the Ukrainian president noted that the US Congress was anticipated to consider defense assurances and that a finalised set of documents could be prepared “today or tomorrow.” He added that, the United States would engage in discussions with Moscow, leading to summit-level talks as soon as this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Some of them concern binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, approved and approved by the US Congress,” the president commented to the press. He stated that these guarantees would “reflect article 5” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give specific details regarding the likely contents of the defense package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. Officials did confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in Ukraine.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and several additional European nations said in a unified declaration that forces belonging to a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, including through operating inside its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these actions would constitute assurances matching Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Russia is near agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

On Tuesday, the Kremlin said it had not received the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that Russia would never accept forces of Nato countries operating in Ukrainian territory “no matter what.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian negotiators and their American counterparts remains the territorial question. A key demand involves Ukraine relinquishing the areas of the Donbas region it currently controls, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. As is known, it is a central problem. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy remarked following the Berlin discussions.

American mediators, led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukraine pull back, but Russia would not move forward, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the military in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘special economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Russia. Not legally or in practice will we recognise Donbas – its currently occupied areas – as Russian. Categorically,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Path Forward and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how Moscow and Kyiv will resolve the land question. Zelenskyy has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine approved it in a national vote. The critical stumbling block is expected to arise when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will face precisely the situation we are experiencing on our flight right now – instability,” said the president, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will apply sanctions pressure and provide us with additional armaments if he rejects everything. In my view, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the United States,” he added.